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            Abstract Many agricultural regions in China are likely to become appreciably wetter or drier as the global climate warming increases. However, the impact of these climate change patterns on the intensity of soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (GHGI, GHG emissions per unit of crop yield) has not yet been rigorously assessed. By integrating an improved agricultural ecosystem model and a meta‐analysis of multiple field studies, we found that climate change is expected to cause a 20.0% crop yield loss, while stimulating soil GHG emissions by 12.2% between 2061 and 2090 in China's agricultural regions. A wetter‐warmer (WW) climate would adversely impact crop yield on an equal basis and lead to a 1.8‐fold‐ increase in GHG emissions relative to those in a drier‐warmer (DW) climate. Without water limitation/excess, extreme heat (an increase of more than 1.5°C in average temperature) during the growing season would amplify 15.7% more yield while simultaneously elevating GHG emissions by 42.5% compared to an increase of below 1.5°C. However, when coupled with extreme drought, it would aggravate crop yield loss by 61.8% without reducing the corresponding GHG emissions. Furthermore, the emission intensity in an extreme WW climate would increase by 22.6% compared to an extreme DW climate. Under this intense WW climate, the use of nitrogen fertilizer would lead to a 37.9% increase in soil GHG emissions without necessarily gaining a corresponding yield advantage compared to a DW climate. These findings suggest that the threat of a wetter‐warmer world to efforts to reduce GHG emissions intensity may be as great as or even greater than that of a drier‐warmer world.more » « less
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            Abstract. The land of the conterminous United States (CONUS) hasbeen transformed dramatically by humans over the last four centuries throughland clearing, agricultural expansion and intensification, and urban sprawl.High-resolution geospatial data on long-term historical changes in land useand land cover (LULC) across the CONUS are essential for predictiveunderstanding of natural–human interactions and land-based climatesolutions for the United States. A few efforts have reconstructed historicalchanges in cropland and urban extent in the United States since themid-19th century. However, the long-term trajectories of multiple LULCtypes with high spatial and temporal resolutions since the colonial era(early 17th century) in the United States are not available yet. Byintegrating multi-source data, such as high-resolution remote sensingimage-based LULC data, model-based LULC products, and historical censusdata, we reconstructed the history of land use and land cover for theconterminous United States (HISLAND-US) at an annual timescale and 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution in the past 390 years (1630–2020). The results showwidespread expansion of cropland and urban land associated with rapid lossof natural vegetation. Croplands are mainly converted from forest, shrub,and grassland, especially in the Great Plains and North Central regions.Forest planting and regeneration accelerated the forest recovery in theNortheast and Southeast since the 1920s. The geospatial and long-termhistorical LULC data from this study provide critical information forassessing the LULC impacts on regional climate, hydrology, andbiogeochemical cycles as well as achieving sustainable use of land in thenation. The datasets are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7055086 (Li et al., 2022).more » « less
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            Through integrating multi-source data including high-resolution remote sensing image-based land use and land cover (LULC) data, model-based land use products, and historical land archives, we reconstructed historical LULC at an annual time scale and 1 km x 1 km resolution in the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 1630 to 2020. Compared to other historical LULC datasets, our data can capture the major characters of LULC as well as provide more accurate information with higher spatial and temporal resolution. The LULC data can be used for regional studies in a wide range of topics including LULC impacts on the ecosystem, biodiversity, water resource, carbon and nitrogen cycles, and greenhouse gas emissions.</p>more » « less
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            ABSTRACT Cropland redistribution to marginal land has been reported worldwide; however, the resulting impacts on environmental sustainability have not been investigated sufficiently. Here we investigated the environmental impacts of cropland redistribution in China. As a result of urbanization-induced loss of high-quality croplands in south China (∼8.5 t ha–1), croplands expanded to marginal lands in northeast (∼4.5 t ha–1) and northwest China (∼2.9 t ha–1) during 1990–2015 to pursue food security. However, the reclamation in these low-yield and ecologically vulnerable zones considerably undermined local environmental sustainability, for example increasing wind erosion (+3.47%), irrigation water consumption (+34.42%), fertilizer use (+20.02%) and decreasing natural habitats (−3.11%). Forecasts show that further reclamation in marginal lands per current policies would exacerbate environmental costs by 2050. The future cropland security risk will be remarkably intensified because of the conflict between food production and environmental sustainability. Our research suggests that globally emerging reclamation of marginal lands should be restricted and crop yield boost should be encouraged for both food security and environmental benefits.more » « less
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            Abstract Rapid derivatization of chiral 1,2‐diols with dinaphthyl borinic acid (DBA) leads to a cyclic boronate, enabling the absolute stereochemical prediction via exciton‐coupled circular dichroic (ECCD) of the naphthyl groups. Aryl‐ and alkyl‐substituted 1,2‐diols derivatized withDBAyield a predictable ECCD, which is also in agreement with theoretical predictions derived from computationally minimized structures.more » « less
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            Abstract Agricultural soils play a dual role in regulating the Earth's climate by releasing or sequestering carbon dioxide (CO2) in soil organic carbon (SOC) and emitting non‐CO2greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). To understand how agricultural soils can play a role in climate solutions requires a comprehensive assessment of net soil GHG balance (i.e., sum of SOC‐sequestered CO2and non‐CO2GHG emissions) and the underlying controls. Herein, we used a model‐data integration approach to understand and quantify how natural and anthropogenic factors have affected the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of the net soil GHG balance in U.S. croplands during 1960–2018. Specifically, we used the dynamic land ecosystem model for regional simulations and used field observations of SOC sequestration rates and N2O and CH4emissions to calibrate, validate, and corroborate model simulations. Results show that U.S. agricultural soils sequestered Tg CO2‐C year−1in SOC (at a depth of 3.5 m) during 1960–2018 and emitted Tg N2O‐N year−1and Tg CH4‐C year−1, respectively. Based on the GWP100 metric (global warming potential on a 100‐year time horizon), the estimated national net GHG emission rate from agricultural soils was Tg CO2‐eq year−1, with the largest contribution from N2O emissions. The sequestered SOC offset ~28% of the climate‐warming effects resulting from non‐CO2GHG emissions, and this offsetting effect increased over time. Increased nitrogen fertilizer use was the dominant factor contributing to the increase in net GHG emissions during 1960–2018, explaining ~47% of total changes. In contrast, reduced cropland area, the adoption of agricultural conservation practices (e.g., reduced tillage), and rising atmospheric CO2levels attenuated net GHG emissions from U.S. croplands. Improving management practices to mitigate N2O emissions represents the biggest opportunity for achieving net‐zero emissions in U.S. croplands. Our study highlights the importance of concurrently quantifying SOC‐sequestered CO2and non‐CO2GHG emissions for developing effective agricultural climate change mitigation measures.more » « less
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